Northumberland County, Pennsylvania Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · PA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 79th
Northumberland County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 79.2, 79th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $37M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Northumberland County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 79.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 79th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Northumberland County's expected losses come from winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $404K in expected annual loss and about 12.79 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $30M in expected annual loss and about 1.25 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 3.60 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $37M in expected annual loss for a population of 92K.
Beyond physical exposure, Northumberland County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Northumberland County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 7 for flood events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 67 Pennsylvania counties, Northumberland County ranks #25 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | High | 12.79 / yr | $404K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.25 / yr | $30M |
| Strong Wind | High | 3.60 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.51 / yr | $21K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.06 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | Medium | 34.16 / yr | $485K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $512K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.84 / yr | $512K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.34 / yr | $73K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.42 / yr | $800K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.20 / yr | $1M |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $282 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $14K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.84 / yr | $64K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Northumberland County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (7), Severe Storm (4), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Flood | Tropical Storm Lee |
| September 2011 | Flood | Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
| June 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina |
| September 2004 | Hurricane | Tropical Depression Ivan |
| September 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding Associated with Tropical Depression Frances |
| March 2003 | Severe Storm | Snow |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Northumberland County?
Northumberland County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 79.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 79th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Northumberland County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (High, $404K EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $30M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Northumberland County compare to other Pennsylvania counties?
Northumberland County ranks #25 of 67 Pennsylvania counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Northumberland County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Northumberland County since 1972, most often 7 for flood events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Northumberland County's $37M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.