Blair County, Pennsylvania Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · PA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 78th
Blair County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 77.7, 78th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $34M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Blair County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 77.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 78th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Blair County's expected losses come from winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $448K in expected annual loss and about 13.95 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $27M in expected annual loss and about 1.54 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $30K in expected annual loss and about 0.64 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $34M in expected annual loss for a population of 123K.
Beyond physical exposure, Blair County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Blair County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 6 for flood events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 67 Pennsylvania counties, Blair County ranks #26 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | High | 13.95 / yr | $448K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.54 / yr | $27M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.64 / yr | $30K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.05 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Medium | 36.55 / yr | $574K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.84 / yr | $861K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $463K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $1K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.17 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.84 / yr | $814K |
| Hail | Low | 1.59 / yr | $188K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 1.32 / yr | $215K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $14K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $19K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Blair County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (6), Snowstorm (4), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Flood | Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
| April 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina |
| September 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding Associated with Tropical Depression Frances |
| September 2004 | Hurricane | Tropical Depression Ivan |
| August 2003 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Blair County?
Blair County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 77.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 78th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Blair County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (High, $448K EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $27M EAL), Landslide (Low, $30K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Blair County compare to other Pennsylvania counties?
Blair County ranks #26 of 67 Pennsylvania counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Blair County had?
FEMA records 18 federal disaster declarations for Blair County since 1972, most often 6 for flood events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Blair County's $34M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.