Butler County, Pennsylvania Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · PA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 79th
Butler County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 79.3, 79th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $48M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Butler County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 79.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 79th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 40.37 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $41M in expected annual loss and about 2.46 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $31K in expected annual loss and about 1.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $48M in expected annual loss for a population of 194K.
Beyond physical exposure, Butler County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Butler County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 3 for hurricane events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 67 Pennsylvania counties, Butler County ranks #24 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | High | 40.37 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.46 / yr | $41M |
| Landslide | Low | 1.01 / yr | $31K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.39 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 13.37 / yr | $139K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.33 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $175K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.37 / yr | $113K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $359K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 1.58 / yr | $285K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $28K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.30 / yr | $116K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 3.26 / yr | $187K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Butler County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (3), Flood (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| April 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina |
| September 2004 | Hurricane | Tropical Depression Ivan |
| September 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding Associated with Tropical Depression Frances |
| January 1996 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 1993 | Snowstorm | Severe Snowfall & Winter Storm |
| August 1980 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 11 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Butler County?
Butler County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 79.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 79th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Butler County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (High, $1M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $41M EAL), Landslide (Low, $31K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Butler County compare to other Pennsylvania counties?
Butler County ranks #24 of 67 Pennsylvania counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Butler County had?
FEMA records 11 federal disaster declarations for Butler County since 1972, most often 3 for hurricane events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Butler County's $48M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.