Lycoming County, Pennsylvania Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · PA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 80th
Lycoming County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 79.6, 80th national percentile), driven primarily by riverine flood and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $41M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Lycoming County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 79.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 80th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $35M in expected annual loss and about 1.89 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $375K in expected annual loss and about 13.87 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 2.39 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $41M in expected annual loss for a population of 114K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lycoming County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Lycoming County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 7 for flood events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Tropical Storm Debby (tropical storm), declared in September 2024.
Among 67 Pennsylvania counties, Lycoming County ranks #23 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.89 / yr | $35M |
| Winter Weather | High | 13.87 / yr | $375K |
| Strong Wind | High | 2.39 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 1.53 / yr | $24K |
| Avalanche | Low | 0.01 / yr | $16K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.04 / yr | $986K |
| Lightning | Medium | 32.77 / yr | $472K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 1.51 / yr | $421K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.39 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $250K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.82 / yr | $480K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $12K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.42 / yr | $58K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $6K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lycoming County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Tropical Storm Debby in September 2024. Most frequent causes: Flood (7), Severe Storm (5), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| November 2018 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| December 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Flood | Tropical Storm Lee |
| September 2011 | Flood | Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
| July 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lycoming County?
Lycoming County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 79.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 80th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lycoming County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Riverine Flood (Medium, $35M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $375K EAL), Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lycoming County compare to other Pennsylvania counties?
Lycoming County ranks #23 of 67 Pennsylvania counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lycoming County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Lycoming County since 1972, most often 7 for flood events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Tropical Storm Debby, declared in September 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lycoming County's $41M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.