Monroe County, Pennsylvania Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · PA
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 85th
Monroe County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 85.1, 85th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $57M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Monroe County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 85.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 85th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 32.12 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $12M in expected annual loss and about 3.21 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $562K in expected annual loss and about 17.95 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $57M in expected annual loss for a population of 168K.
Beyond physical exposure, Monroe County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Monroe County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 6 for hurricane events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 67 Pennsylvania counties, Monroe County ranks #18 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | Very High | 32.12 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | High | 3.21 / yr | $12M |
| Winter Weather | High | 17.95 / yr | $562K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.18 / yr | $33M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.05 / yr | $3M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.61 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.60 / yr | $301K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 1.89 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.47 / yr | $7K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.24 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $53K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $109 |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.24 / yr | $59K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Monroe County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (6), Flood (6), Severe Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| January 2013 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Flood | Tropical Storm Lee |
| September 2011 | Flood | Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
| September 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| June 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Monroe County?
Monroe County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 85.1 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 85th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Monroe County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (Very High, $2M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $12M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $562K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Monroe County compare to other Pennsylvania counties?
Monroe County ranks #18 of 67 Pennsylvania counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Monroe County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Monroe County since 1965, most often 6 for hurricane events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Monroe County's $57M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.