Erie County
Pennsylvania — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 84th
Erie County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 84.1, 84th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $48M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | High | 36.62 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | High | 29.77 / yr | $614K |
| Strong Wind | High | 1.35 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.14 / yr | $38M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $598K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.29 / yr | $202K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.32 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $417K |
| Hail | Low | 1.56 / yr | $259K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.26 / yr | $862 |
| Heat Wave | Low | 0.89 / yr | $216K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 3.62 / yr | $580K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $20K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $8K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Erie County?
Erie County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 84.1 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 84th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Erie County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (High, $2M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $614K EAL), Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Erie County compare to other Pennsylvania counties?
Erie County ranks #19 of 67 Pennsylvania counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Erie County's $48M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.