Erie County, Pennsylvania Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · PA
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 84th
Erie County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 84.1, 84th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $48M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Erie County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 84.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 84th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Erie County's expected losses come from lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 36.62 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $614K in expected annual loss and about 29.77 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.35 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $48M in expected annual loss for a population of 271K.
Beyond physical exposure, Erie County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Erie County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 3 for hurricane events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 67 Pennsylvania counties, Erie County ranks #19 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | High | 36.62 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | High | 29.77 / yr | $614K |
| Strong Wind | High | 1.35 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.14 / yr | $38M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $598K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.29 / yr | $202K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.32 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $417K |
| Hail | Low | 1.56 / yr | $259K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.26 / yr | $862 |
| Heat Wave | Low | 0.89 / yr | $216K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 3.62 / yr | $580K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $20K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $8K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Erie County has received 11 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (3), Biological (2), Flood (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina |
| September 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding Associated with Tropical Depression Frances |
| September 2004 | Hurricane | Tropical Depression Ivan |
| January 1996 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 1993 | Snowstorm | Severe Snowfall & Winter Storm |
| June 1985 | Tornado | Severe Storms, High Winds & Tornadoes |
| January 1977 | Snowstorm | Snowstorms |
Showing the 10 most recent of 11 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Erie County?
Erie County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 84.1 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 84th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Erie County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (High, $2M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $614K EAL), Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Erie County compare to other Pennsylvania counties?
Erie County ranks #19 of 67 Pennsylvania counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Erie County had?
FEMA records 11 federal disaster declarations for Erie County since 1972, most often 3 for hurricane events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Erie County's $48M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.