Cumberland County, Pennsylvania Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · PA
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 86th
Cumberland County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 86.2, 86th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $69M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Cumberland County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 86.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 86th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $697K in expected annual loss and about 12.16 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 5.12 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $50M in expected annual loss and about 2.11 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $69M in expected annual loss for a population of 259K.
Beyond physical exposure, Cumberland County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Cumberland County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 7 for flood events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 67 Pennsylvania counties, Cumberland County ranks #16 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | High | 12.16 / yr | $697K |
| Strong Wind | High | 5.12 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.11 / yr | $50M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.07 / yr | $6M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 4.63 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | Medium | 36.63 / yr | $741K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.35 / yr | $10K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.29 / yr | $3M |
| Drought | Low | 0.41 / yr | $292K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $47K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.56 / yr | $83K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.21 / yr | $816K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $140 |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.45 / yr | $54K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Cumberland County has received 19 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (7), Snowstorm (4), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Flood | Tropical Storm Lee |
| September 2011 | Flood | Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
| April 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina |
| September 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding Associated with Tropical Depression Frances |
| September 2004 | Hurricane | Tropical Depression Ivan |
Showing the 10 most recent of 19 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Cumberland County?
Cumberland County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 86.2 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 86th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Cumberland County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (High, $697K EAL), Strong Wind (High, $3M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $50M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Cumberland County compare to other Pennsylvania counties?
Cumberland County ranks #16 of 67 Pennsylvania counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Cumberland County had?
FEMA records 19 federal disaster declarations for Cumberland County since 1972, most often 7 for flood events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Cumberland County's $69M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.