Fayette County, Pennsylvania Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · PA
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 82th
Fayette County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 82.2, 82th national percentile), driven primarily by riverine flood and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $37M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Fayette County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 82.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 82nd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Fayette County's expected losses come from riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $32M in expected annual loss and about 3.54 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $31K in expected annual loss and about 1.34 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $605K in expected annual loss and about 43.41 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $37M in expected annual loss for a population of 129K.
Beyond physical exposure, Fayette County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The federal record bears this out: Fayette County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1971, including 5 for snowstorm events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 67 Pennsylvania counties, Fayette County ranks #21 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 3.54 / yr | $32M |
| Landslide | Low | 1.34 / yr | $31K |
| Lightning | Medium | 43.41 / yr | $605K |
| Hail | Medium | 2.56 / yr | $537K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.21 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.27 / yr | $675K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $364K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $167K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $1K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 18.53 / yr | $67K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.33 / yr | $70K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $27K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 1.30 / yr | $218K |
| Drought | Low | 0.82 / yr | $74K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 3.57 / yr | $46K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Fayette County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1971, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Snowstorm (5), Severe Storm (4), Flood (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| October 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| April 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina |
| September 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding Associated with Tropical Depression Frances |
| September 2004 | Hurricane | Tropical Depression Ivan |
| March 2003 | Severe Storm | Snow |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Fayette County?
Fayette County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 82.2 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 82th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Fayette County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Riverine Flood (Medium, $32M EAL), Landslide (Low, $31K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $605K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Fayette County compare to other Pennsylvania counties?
Fayette County ranks #21 of 67 Pennsylvania counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Fayette County had?
FEMA records 18 federal disaster declarations for Fayette County since 1971, most often 5 for snowstorm events and 4 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Fayette County's $37M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.