Tioga County, Pennsylvania Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · PA
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 60th
Tioga County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 59.8, 60th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $19M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Tioga County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 59.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 60th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $18K in expected annual loss and about 1.37 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $16M in expected annual loss and about 1.32 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $150K in expected annual loss and about 15.47 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $19M in expected annual loss for a population of 41K.
Beyond physical exposure, Tioga County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Tioga County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 7 for flood events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Tropical Storm Debby (tropical storm), declared in September 2024.
Among 67 Pennsylvania counties, Tioga County ranks #45 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Low | 1.37 / yr | $18K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.32 / yr | $16M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 15.47 / yr | $150K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.04 / yr | $620K |
| Avalanche | Low | 0.01 / yr | $4K |
| Lightning | Medium | 30.89 / yr | $281K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.81 / yr | $558K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $75K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.19 / yr | $28K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.28 / yr | $296K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $7K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.68 / yr | $36K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 3.74 / yr | $127K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.47 / yr | $38K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Tioga County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Tropical Storm Debby in September 2024. Most frequent causes: Flood (7), Severe Storm (5), Hurricane (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| November 2018 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Flood | Tropical Storm Lee |
| September 2011 | Flood | Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
| July 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Tioga County?
Tioga County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 59.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 60th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Tioga County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Low, $18K EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $16M EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $150K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Tioga County compare to other Pennsylvania counties?
Tioga County ranks #45 of 67 Pennsylvania counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Tioga County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Tioga County since 1972, most often 7 for flood events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Tropical Storm Debby, declared in September 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Tioga County's $19M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.