Payne County, Oklahoma Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OK
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 84th
Payne County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 83.9, 84th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $50M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Payne County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 83.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 84th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.07 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $15M in expected annual loss and about 2.16 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 11.20 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $50M in expected annual loss for a population of 82K.
Beyond physical exposure, Payne County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Payne County has received 39 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 11 for fire events and 10 for severe storm events. The most recent was Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds (fire), declared in May 2025.
Among 77 Oklahoma counties, Payne County ranks #6 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.07 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | High | 2.16 / yr | $15M |
| Hail | High | 11.20 / yr | $4M |
| Tornado | High | 0.85 / yr | $11M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 19.26 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 9.42 / yr | $234K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 6.85 / yr | $1M |
| Drought | Medium | 36.39 / yr | $565K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.93 / yr | $12M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.22 / yr | $3K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $404K |
| Lightning | Low | 51.63 / yr | $168K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $14K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Payne County has received 39 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Fire (11), Severe Storm (10), Severe Ice Storm (9).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Fire | Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds |
| March 2025 | Fire | Underwood Fire |
| March 2025 | Fire | Stillwater Fire |
| October 2024 | Fire | Euchee Creek Fire |
| July 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| December 2020 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
Showing the 10 most recent of 39 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Payne County?
Payne County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 83.9 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 84th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Payne County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $2M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $15M EAL), Hail (High, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Payne County compare to other Oklahoma counties?
Payne County ranks #6 of 77 Oklahoma counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Payne County had?
FEMA records 39 federal disaster declarations for Payne County since 1974, most often 11 for fire events and 10 for severe storm events. The most recent was Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds, declared in May 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Payne County's $50M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.