Muskogee County, Oklahoma Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OK
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 82th
Muskogee County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 82.0, 82th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $34M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Muskogee County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 82.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 82nd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Muskogee County's expected losses come from ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.45 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 8.66 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 25.89 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $34M in expected annual loss for a population of 66K.
Beyond physical exposure, Muskogee County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Muskogee County has received 34 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 18 for severe storm events and 7 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in June 2024.
Among 77 Oklahoma counties, Muskogee County ranks #13 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.45 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | High | 8.66 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 25.89 / yr | $4M |
| Tornado | High | 0.94 / yr | $6M |
| Drought | Medium | 18.60 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $849K |
| Winter Weather | High | 7.74 / yr | $211K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 6.46 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Medium | 57.39 / yr | $488K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.68 / yr | $13M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.16 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $45K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.17 / yr | $197 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Muskogee County has received 34 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in June 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (18), Severe Ice Storm (7), Flood (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| July 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| June 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2019 | Flood | Flooding |
| July 2017 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 34 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Muskogee County?
Muskogee County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 82.0 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 82th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Muskogee County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $2M EAL), Hail (High, $2M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Muskogee County compare to other Oklahoma counties?
Muskogee County ranks #13 of 77 Oklahoma counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Muskogee County had?
FEMA records 34 federal disaster declarations for Muskogee County since 1973, most often 18 for severe storm events and 7 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in June 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Muskogee County's $34M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.