Rogers County, Oklahoma Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OK
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 80th
Rogers County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 80.1, 80th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $43M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Rogers County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 80.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 80th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 1.31 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 24.63 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $792K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $43M in expected annual loss for a population of 95K.
Beyond physical exposure, Rogers County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Rogers County has received 31 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 12 for severe storm events and 8 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in June 2024.
Among 77 Oklahoma counties, Rogers County ranks #14 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.31 / yr | $3M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 24.63 / yr | $6M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $792K |
| Winter Weather | High | 9.11 / yr | $298K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.79 / yr | $21M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.79 / yr | $4M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.84 / yr | $4M |
| Lightning | Medium | 54.54 / yr | $558K |
| Drought | Medium | 23.62 / yr | $624K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 7.00 / yr | $923K |
| Hail | Low | 8.81 / yr | $478K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.16 / yr | $4K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $357K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $9K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Rogers County has received 31 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in June 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (12), Severe Ice Storm (8), Flood (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| July 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2017 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 31 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Rogers County?
Rogers County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 80.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 80th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Rogers County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $3M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $6M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $792K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Rogers County compare to other Oklahoma counties?
Rogers County ranks #14 of 77 Oklahoma counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Rogers County had?
FEMA records 31 federal disaster declarations for Rogers County since 1974, most often 12 for severe storm events and 8 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in June 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Rogers County's $43M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.