Kay County, Oklahoma Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OK
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 80th
Kay County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 79.9, 80th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $34M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Kay County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 79.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 80th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Kay County's expected losses come from ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.79 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $8M in expected annual loss and about 2.68 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $8M in expected annual loss and about 0.91 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $34M in expected annual loss for a population of 44K.
Beyond physical exposure, Kay County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Kay County has received 36 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 17 for severe storm events and 7 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (tornado), declared in April 2024.
Among 77 Oklahoma counties, Kay County ranks #15 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | High | 0.79 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | High | 2.68 / yr | $8M |
| Tornado | High | 0.91 / yr | $8M |
| Hail | Medium | 9.60 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $883K |
| Drought | Medium | 59.24 / yr | $938K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 17.32 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 8.89 / yr | $137K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.11 / yr | $10M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 6.66 / yr | $645K |
| Lightning | Medium | 51.19 / yr | $258K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $248K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $1K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $7K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Kay County has received 36 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in April 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (17), Severe Ice Storm (7), Flood (6).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2024 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| December 2020 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| June 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2019 | Flood | Flooding |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 36 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Kay County?
Kay County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 79.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 80th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Kay County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $1M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $8M EAL), Tornado (High, $8M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Kay County compare to other Oklahoma counties?
Kay County ranks #15 of 77 Oklahoma counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Kay County had?
FEMA records 36 federal disaster declarations for Kay County since 1973, most often 17 for severe storm events and 7 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in April 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Kay County's $34M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.