McIntosh County, Oklahoma Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OK
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 66th
McIntosh County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 65.8, 66th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $14M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in McIntosh County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 65.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 66th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 24.77 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $695K in expected annual loss and about 1.43 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $848K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $14M in expected annual loss for a population of 19K.
Beyond physical exposure, McIntosh County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: McIntosh County has received 31 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 15 for severe storm events and 6 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes (severe storm), declared in July 2023.
Among 77 Oklahoma counties, McIntosh County ranks #32 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 24.77 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.43 / yr | $695K |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $848K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 25.95 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Medium | 8.00 / yr | $680K |
| Lightning | High | 56.75 / yr | $498K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.77 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 7.05 / yr | $61K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.17 / yr | $2K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.46 / yr | $5M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.11 / yr | $622K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.35 / yr | $325K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $167K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $22K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
McIntosh County has received 31 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes in July 2023. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (15), Severe Ice Storm (6), Fire (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| February 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms and Flooding |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2013 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 31 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for McIntosh County?
McIntosh County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 65.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 66th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in McIntosh County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $1M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $695K EAL), Wildfire (Medium, $848K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does McIntosh County compare to other Oklahoma counties?
McIntosh County ranks #32 of 77 Oklahoma counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has McIntosh County had?
FEMA records 31 federal disaster declarations for McIntosh County since 1973, most often 15 for severe storm events and 6 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes, declared in July 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. McIntosh County's $14M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.