Lincoln County, Oklahoma Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OK
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 71th
Lincoln County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 71.3, 71th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Lincoln County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 71.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 71st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $834K in expected annual loss and about 1.10 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 11.43 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $20M in expected annual loss for a population of 33K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lincoln County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Lincoln County has received 45 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including 18 for severe storm events and 10 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds (fire), declared in May 2025.
Among 77 Oklahoma counties, Lincoln County ranks #30 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | High | 1.10 / yr | $834K |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Medium | 11.43 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | High | 1.74 / yr | $4M |
| Tornado | Medium | 1.22 / yr | $4M |
| Drought | Medium | 28.48 / yr | $980K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 19.53 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 8.79 / yr | $111K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.29 / yr | $4K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.93 / yr | $5M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $185K |
| Lightning | Low | 52.47 / yr | $124K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 6.63 / yr | $232K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $4K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lincoln County has received 45 federal disaster declarations since 1970, most recently Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (18), Severe Ice Storm (10), Fire (6).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Fire | Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds |
| March 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2025 | Fire | Chandler Fire |
| March 2025 | Fire | Logan Fire |
| April 2024 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| December 2020 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
Showing the 10 most recent of 45 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lincoln County?
Lincoln County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 71.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 71th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lincoln County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $834K EAL), Wildfire (Medium, $1M EAL), Hail (Medium, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lincoln County compare to other Oklahoma counties?
Lincoln County ranks #30 of 77 Oklahoma counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lincoln County had?
FEMA records 45 federal disaster declarations for Lincoln County since 1970, most often 18 for severe storm events and 10 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Wildfires and Straight-Line Winds, declared in May 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lincoln County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.