Wagoner County, Oklahoma Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OK
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 73th
Wagoner County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 73.3, 73th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $35M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Wagoner County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 73.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 73rd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 1.35 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 25.74 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 9.03 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $35M in expected annual loss for a population of 81K.
Beyond physical exposure, Wagoner County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Wagoner County has received 34 federal disaster declarations since 1971, including 10 for severe storm events and 8 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (tornado), declared in April 2024.
Among 77 Oklahoma counties, Wagoner County ranks #28 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.35 / yr | $3M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 25.74 / yr | $5M |
| Hail | Medium | 9.03 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Medium | 21.96 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $516K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 8.05 / yr | $202K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.47 / yr | $3M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.69 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.96 / yr | $14M |
| Lightning | Medium | 55.74 / yr | $512K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $2K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $296K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 6.91 / yr | $326K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $8K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Wagoner County has received 34 federal disaster declarations since 1971, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in April 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Severe Ice Storm (8), Flood (8).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2024 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| July 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2019 | Flood | Flooding |
| February 2017 | Fire | 141st Fire |
| May 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 34 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Wagoner County?
Wagoner County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 73.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 73th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Wagoner County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $3M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $5M EAL), Hail (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Wagoner County compare to other Oklahoma counties?
Wagoner County ranks #28 of 77 Oklahoma counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Wagoner County had?
FEMA records 34 federal disaster declarations for Wagoner County since 1971, most often 10 for severe storm events and 8 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in April 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Wagoner County's $35M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.