Osage County, Oklahoma Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · OK
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 78th
Osage County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 78.1, 78th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $28M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Osage County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 78.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 78th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.86 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 23.58 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $28M in expected annual loss for a population of 46K.
Beyond physical exposure, Osage County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Osage County has received 42 federal disaster declarations since 1971, including 15 for severe storm events and 8 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Rattlesnake Fire (fire), declared in February 2026.
Among 77 Oklahoma counties, Osage County ranks #17 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 0.86 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 23.58 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Medium | 56.14 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 2.35 / yr | $5M |
| Landslide | Medium | 0.89 / yr | $32K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.05 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.07 / yr | $12M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 9.53 / yr | $118K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 7.02 / yr | $547K |
| Lightning | Low | 52.57 / yr | $192K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $146K |
| Hail | Very Low | 9.26 / yr | $84K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $9K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Osage County has received 42 federal disaster declarations since 1971, most recently Rattlesnake Fire in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (15), Severe Ice Storm (8), Flood (7).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Fire | Rattlesnake Fire |
| October 2024 | Fire | North Road Fire |
| April 2024 | Tornado | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| February 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| June 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2019 | Flood | Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 42 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Osage County?
Osage County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 78.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 78th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Osage County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $1M EAL), Wildfire (Medium, $2M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Osage County compare to other Oklahoma counties?
Osage County ranks #17 of 77 Oklahoma counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Osage County had?
FEMA records 42 federal disaster declarations for Osage County since 1971, most often 15 for severe storm events and 8 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Rattlesnake Fire, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Osage County's $28M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.