Wayne County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 90th
Wayne County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 90.4, 90th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $66M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Wayne County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 90.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 90th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 5.00 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at High risk — $24M in expected annual loss and about 0.26 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.39 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $66M in expected annual loss for a population of 117K.
Beyond physical exposure, Wayne County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Wayne County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 17 for hurricane events and 2 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Wayne County ranks #11 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | Very High | 5.00 / yr | $1M |
| Hurricane | High | 0.26 / yr | $24M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.39 / yr | $5M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.32 / yr | $28M |
| Hail | Medium | 4.14 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 8.58 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | High | 51.01 / yr | $659K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.87 / yr | $349K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.30 / yr | $872K |
| Drought | Medium | 7.92 / yr | $514K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $796K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.47 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $49K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $264 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Wayne County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (17), Tropical Storm (2), Severe Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| May 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
| September 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Wayne County?
Wayne County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 90.4 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 90th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Wayne County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (Very High, $1M EAL), Hurricane (High, $24M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $5M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Wayne County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Wayne County ranks #11 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Wayne County had?
FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Wayne County since 1968, most often 17 for hurricane events and 2 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Wayne County's $66M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.