Forsyth County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 92th
Forsyth County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 91.5, 92th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $104M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Forsyth County is medium, with a National Risk Index score of 91.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 92nd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Forsyth County's expected losses come from ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 2.12 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at High risk — $72M in expected annual loss and about 1.57 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $454K in expected annual loss and about 7.79 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $104M in expected annual loss for a population of 383K.
Beyond physical exposure, Forsyth County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Forsyth County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 11 for hurricane events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Forsyth County ranks #9 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 2.12 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 1.57 / yr | $72M |
| Winter Weather | High | 7.79 / yr | $454K |
| Tornado | High | 0.14 / yr | $8M |
| Cold Wave | High | 0.68 / yr | $7M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $4M |
| Lightning | High | 48.26 / yr | $1M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.09 / yr | $5M |
| Hail | Medium | 4.85 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | High | 2.58 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 1.79 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.54 / yr | $7K |
| Drought | Low | 19.60 / yr | $187K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $20K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Forsyth County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (11), Snowstorm (4), Tropical Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
| January 2019 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Michael |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Forsyth County?
Forsyth County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 91.5 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 92th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Forsyth County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $3M EAL), Riverine Flood (High, $72M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $454K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Forsyth County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Forsyth County ranks #9 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Forsyth County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Forsyth County since 1977, most often 11 for hurricane events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Forsyth County's $104M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.