Chatham County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 67th
Chatham County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 67.2, 67th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $25M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Chatham County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 67.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 67th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.14 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.30 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $15M in expected annual loss and about 1.04 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $25M in expected annual loss for a population of 76K.
Beyond physical exposure, Chatham County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Chatham County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 12 for hurricane events and 2 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Chatham County ranks #57 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.14 / yr | $3M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.30 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.04 / yr | $15M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.80 / yr | $261K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 5.74 / yr | $961K |
| Hail | Low | 4.35 / yr | $468K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $458K |
| Lightning | Medium | 49.94 / yr | $298K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 6.58 / yr | $72K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.68 / yr | $944K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.34 / yr | $1K |
| Drought | Low | 16.11 / yr | $95K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.16 / yr | $349K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $16K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Chatham County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (12), Tropical Storm (2), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2025 | Tropical Depression | Tropical Depression Chantal |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
| January 2019 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Michael |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Chatham County?
Chatham County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 67.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 67th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Chatham County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Medium, $3M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $3M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $15M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Chatham County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Chatham County ranks #57 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Chatham County had?
FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Chatham County since 1977, most often 12 for hurricane events and 2 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Chatham County's $25M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.