Ashe County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 67th
Ashe County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 66.8, 67th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $18M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Ashe County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 66.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 67th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $67K in expected annual loss and about 1.35 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 4.89 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $985K in expected annual loss and about 2.67 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $18M in expected annual loss for a population of 27K.
Beyond physical exposure, Ashe County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Ashe County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 10 for hurricane events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Ashe County ranks #58 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 1.35 / yr | $67K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 4.89 / yr | $3M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.67 / yr | $985K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.21 / yr | $12M |
| Drought | Medium | 19.35 / yr | $391K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.54 / yr | $144K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $209K |
| Lightning | Low | 48.72 / yr | $183K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $220K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $29K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 20.84 / yr | $40K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.10 / yr | $589K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.99 / yr | $91K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Ashe County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (10), Flood (5), Severe Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| September 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants of Tropical Storm Fred |
| March 2021 | Severe Storm | Tropical Storm Eta |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| May 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
Showing the 10 most recent of 26 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Ashe County?
Ashe County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 66.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 67th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Ashe County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $67K EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $3M EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $985K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Ashe County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Ashe County ranks #58 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Ashe County had?
FEMA records 26 federal disaster declarations for Ashe County since 1973, most often 10 for hurricane events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Ashe County's $18M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.