Caldwell County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 67th
Caldwell County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 67.4, 67th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $25M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Caldwell County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 67.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 67th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $56K in expected annual loss and about 1.28 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $732K in expected annual loss and about 1.13 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $18M in expected annual loss and about 2.18 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $25M in expected annual loss for a population of 81K.
Beyond physical exposure, Caldwell County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Caldwell County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 8 for hurricane events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Caldwell County ranks #56 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 1.28 / yr | $56K |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.13 / yr | $732K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.18 / yr | $18M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.70 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Medium | 53.37 / yr | $482K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.04 / yr | $373K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.17 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $50K |
| Drought | Low | 29.09 / yr | $146K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.32 / yr | $922K |
| Hail | Low | 4.75 / yr | $218K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 0.19 / yr | $210K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 8.73 / yr | $37K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Caldwell County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (8), Snowstorm (3), Tropical Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| March 2021 | Severe Storm | Tropical Storm Eta |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Caldwell County?
Caldwell County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 67.4 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 67th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Caldwell County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $56K EAL), Ice Storm (High, $732K EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $18M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Caldwell County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Caldwell County ranks #56 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Caldwell County had?
FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for Caldwell County since 1974, most often 8 for hurricane events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Caldwell County's $25M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.