Oswego County, New York Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NY
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 68th
Oswego County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 67.6, 68th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $27M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Oswego County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 67.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 68th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $564K in expected annual loss and about 46.74 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $558K in expected annual loss and about 1.39 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $22M in expected annual loss and about 0.86 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $27M in expected annual loss for a population of 118K.
Beyond physical exposure, Oswego County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Oswego County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 6 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storm and Flooding (severe storm), declared in October 2024.
Among 62 New York counties, Oswego County ranks #36 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | High | 46.74 / yr | $564K |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.39 / yr | $558K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.86 / yr | $22M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.23 / yr | $905K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $617K |
| Lightning | Medium | 28.55 / yr | $381K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.01 / yr | $223K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.89 / yr | $334K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.38 / yr | $837 |
| Tornado | Low | 0.16 / yr | $973K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $20K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $8K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.48 / yr | $89K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 4.26 / yr | $284K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Oswego County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Storm and Flooding in October 2024. Most frequent causes: Flood (6), Severe Storm (3), Snowstorm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| October 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm and Flooding |
| November 2022 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| December 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| November 2017 | Flood | Flooding |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| February 2007 | Snowstorm | Record Snow and Near Record Snow |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| August 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Oswego County?
Oswego County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 67.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 68th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Oswego County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (High, $564K EAL), Ice Storm (High, $558K EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $22M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Oswego County compare to other New York counties?
Oswego County ranks #36 of 62 New York counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Oswego County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Oswego County since 1972, most often 6 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storm and Flooding, declared in October 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Oswego County's $27M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.