Montgomery County, New York Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NY

Low

Composite Risk Score

65.2

National percentile: 65th

Montgomery County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 65.2, 65th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Montgomery County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 65.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 65th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

The county's risk is driven primarily by landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $65K in expected annual loss and about 0.19 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $16M in expected annual loss and about 3.04 events per year; and hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $397K in expected annual loss and about 0.03 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $20M in expected annual loss for a population of 49K.

Beyond physical exposure, Montgomery County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.

History supports the rating: Montgomery County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1987, including 11 for severe storm events and 4 for hurricane events. The most recent was Hurricane Henri (hurricane), declared in August 2021.

Among 62 New York counties, Montgomery County ranks #37 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $20M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability High Population sensitivity
Community Resilience High Capacity to recover
Population 49K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Medium $65K/yr
Medium $16M/yr
Low $397K/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Landslide Medium 0.19 / yr$65K
Riverine Flood Medium 3.04 / yr$16M
Hurricane Low 0.03 / yr$397K
Winter Weather Medium 19.69 / yr$92K
Cold Wave Low 3.26 / yr$1M
Ice Storm Low 0.63 / yr$94K
Lightning Low 25.50 / yr$226K
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr$244K
Hail Low 2.44 / yr$182K
Tornado Low 0.09 / yr$743K
Heat Wave Very Low 3.00 / yr$154K
Strong Wind Low 1.24 / yr$269K
Avalanche Very Low 0.01 / yr$83
Wildfire Very Low 0.00 / yr$10K
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Drought Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Montgomery County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1987, most recently Hurricane Henri in August 2021. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (11), Hurricane (4), Snowstorm (3).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
August 2021HurricaneHurricane Henri
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
December 2019Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
July 2017SnowstormSevere Winter Storm and Snowstorm
July 2013FloodSevere Storms and Flooding
October 2012HurricaneHurricane Sandy
September 2011Severe StormRemnants of Tropical Storm Lee
September 2011Severe StormRemnants of Tropical Storm Lee
August 2011HurricaneHurricane Irene

Showing the 10 most recent of 26 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Montgomery County?

Montgomery County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 65.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 65th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Montgomery County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $65K EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $16M EAL), Hurricane (Low, $397K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Montgomery County compare to other New York counties?

Montgomery County ranks #37 of 62 New York counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Montgomery County had?

FEMA records 26 federal disaster declarations for Montgomery County since 1987, most often 11 for severe storm events and 4 for hurricane events. The most recent was Hurricane Henri, declared in August 2021.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Montgomery County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.