Montgomery County, New York Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NY
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 65th
Montgomery County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 65.2, 65th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Montgomery County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 65.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 65th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $65K in expected annual loss and about 0.19 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $16M in expected annual loss and about 3.04 events per year; and hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $397K in expected annual loss and about 0.03 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $20M in expected annual loss for a population of 49K.
Beyond physical exposure, Montgomery County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
History supports the rating: Montgomery County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1987, including 11 for severe storm events and 4 for hurricane events. The most recent was Hurricane Henri (hurricane), declared in August 2021.
Among 62 New York counties, Montgomery County ranks #37 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 0.19 / yr | $65K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 3.04 / yr | $16M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $397K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 19.69 / yr | $92K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 3.26 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.63 / yr | $94K |
| Lightning | Low | 25.50 / yr | $226K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $244K |
| Hail | Low | 2.44 / yr | $182K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.09 / yr | $743K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 3.00 / yr | $154K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.24 / yr | $269K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $83 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $10K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Montgomery County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1987, most recently Hurricane Henri in August 2021. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (11), Hurricane (4), Snowstorm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Henri |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| December 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2017 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| July 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Severe Storm | Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
| September 2011 | Severe Storm | Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
Showing the 10 most recent of 26 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Montgomery County?
Montgomery County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 65.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 65th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Montgomery County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $65K EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $16M EAL), Hurricane (Low, $397K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Montgomery County compare to other New York counties?
Montgomery County ranks #37 of 62 New York counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Montgomery County had?
FEMA records 26 federal disaster declarations for Montgomery County since 1987, most often 11 for severe storm events and 4 for hurricane events. The most recent was Hurricane Henri, declared in August 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Montgomery County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.