Genesee County, New York Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NY
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 56th
Genesee County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 56.1, 56th national percentile), driven primarily by lightning and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $19M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Genesee County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 56.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 56th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $985K in expected annual loss and about 28.55 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $287K in expected annual loss and about 1.94 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $664K in expected annual loss and about 1.94 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $19M in expected annual loss for a population of 58K.
Beyond physical exposure, Genesee County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Genesee County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 10 for snowstorm events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm (snowstorm), declared in March 2023.
Among 62 New York counties, Genesee County ranks #49 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Lightning | High | 28.55 / yr | $985K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.94 / yr | $287K |
| Drought | Medium | 1.94 / yr | $664K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.93 / yr | $14M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.36 / yr | $826K |
| Hail | Low | 0.85 / yr | $417K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $258K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $246K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 3.00 / yr | $604K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.84 / yr | $173K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.05 / yr | $507K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 21.80 / yr | $27K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $153 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $7K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Genesee County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm in March 2023. Most frequent causes: Snowstorm (10), Severe Storm (3), Winter Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2023 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| December 2022 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| November 2022 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| December 2014 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, and Flooding |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| October 2006 | Snowstorm | Lake Effect Snowstorm |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Genesee County?
Genesee County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 56.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 56th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Genesee County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Lightning (High, $985K EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $287K EAL), Drought (Medium, $664K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Genesee County compare to other New York counties?
Genesee County ranks #49 of 62 New York counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Genesee County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Genesee County since 1973, most often 10 for snowstorm events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm, declared in March 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Genesee County's $19M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.