Wayne County, New York Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NY
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 56th
Wayne County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 56.3, 56th national percentile), driven primarily by hail and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $19M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Wayne County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 56.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 56th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 1.50 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $283K in expected annual loss and about 1.15 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Low risk — $14M in expected annual loss and about 1.11 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $19M in expected annual loss for a population of 91K.
Beyond physical exposure, Wayne County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Wayne County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 3 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 62 New York counties, Wayne County ranks #48 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hail | Medium | 1.50 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.15 / yr | $283K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.11 / yr | $14M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.36 / yr | $859K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $156K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $364K |
| Lightning | Low | 28.16 / yr | $248K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 3.58 / yr | $319K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.23 / yr | $990 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $27K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.14 / yr | $802K |
| Drought | Low | 0.55 / yr | $41K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 25.79 / yr | $37K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.89 / yr | $351K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $1 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Wayne County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (3), Severe Storm (3), Snowstorm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| November 2017 | Flood | Flooding |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| October 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 2003 | Other | Power Outage |
| May 2003 | Severe Ice Storm | Ice Storm |
| September 2001 | Fire | Fires and Explosions |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Wayne County?
Wayne County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 56.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 56th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Wayne County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hail (Medium, $1M EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $283K EAL), Riverine Flood (Low, $14M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Wayne County compare to other New York counties?
Wayne County ranks #48 of 62 New York counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Wayne County had?
FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Wayne County since 1972, most often 3 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Wayne County's $19M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.