Erie County, New York Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NY
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 98th
Erie County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 97.7, 98th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $286M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Erie County is high, with a National Risk Index score of 97.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 98th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Very High risk — $53M in expected annual loss and about 4.90 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 44.91 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at High risk — $205M in expected annual loss and about 3.61 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $286M in expected annual loss for a population of 954K.
Beyond physical exposure, Erie County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Erie County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1976, including 11 for snowstorm events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm (snowstorm), declared in March 2023.
Among 62 New York counties, Erie County ranks #5 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | Very High | 4.90 / yr | $53M |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 44.91 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 3.61 / yr | $205M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 2.10 / yr | $6M |
| Tornado | High | 0.15 / yr | $12M |
| Ice Storm | High | 2.67 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | High | 32.45 / yr | $942K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $3M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.55 / yr | $1M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $649K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $97K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.27 / yr | $1K |
| Coastal Flood | Low | 0.01 / yr | $42K |
| Hail | Low | 0.82 / yr | $181K |
| Drought | Low | 0.36 / yr | $42K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $54 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Erie County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1976, most recently Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm in March 2023. Most frequent causes: Snowstorm (11), Severe Storm (6), Winter Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2023 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| December 2022 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| November 2022 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| December 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| December 2014 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, and Flooding |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| October 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 27 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Erie County?
Erie County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 97.7 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 98th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Erie County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (Very High, $53M EAL), Winter Weather (Very High, $2M EAL), Riverine Flood (High, $205M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Erie County compare to other New York counties?
Erie County ranks #5 of 62 New York counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Erie County had?
FEMA records 27 federal disaster declarations for Erie County since 1976, most often 11 for snowstorm events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm, declared in March 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Erie County's $286M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.