Erie County
New York — Natural Disaster Risk Assessment
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 98th
Erie County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 97.7, 98th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $286M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | Very High | 4.90 / yr | $53M |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 44.91 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 3.61 / yr | $205M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 2.10 / yr | $6M |
| Tornado | High | 0.15 / yr | $12M |
| Ice Storm | High | 2.67 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | High | 32.45 / yr | $942K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $3M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.55 / yr | $1M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $649K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $97K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.27 / yr | $1K |
| Coastal Flood | Low | 0.01 / yr | $42K |
| Hail | Low | 0.82 / yr | $181K |
| Drought | Low | 0.36 / yr | $42K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $54 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Erie County?
Erie County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 97.7 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 98th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Erie County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (Very High, $53M EAL), Winter Weather (Very High, $2M EAL), Riverine Flood (High, $205M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Erie County compare to other New York counties?
Erie County ranks #5 of 62 New York counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Erie County's $286M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.