Union County, New Mexico Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NM
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 12th
Union County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 12.1, 12th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $4M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Union County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 12.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 12th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 160.17 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $759K in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $88K in expected annual loss and about 15.21 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $4M in expected annual loss for a population of 4K.
Beyond physical exposure, Union County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Union County has received 7 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 2 for biological events and 1 for hurricane events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 33 New Mexico counties, Union County ranks #28 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | High | 160.17 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.01 / yr | $759K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 15.21 / yr | $88K |
| Hail | Low | 2.21 / yr | $308K |
| Lightning | Low | 54.76 / yr | $136K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.73 / yr | $77 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.69 / yr | $142K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $15K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.81 / yr | $66K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $4K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.19 / yr | $14K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.67 / yr | $42K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.96 / yr | $666K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $1 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Union County has received 7 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Hurricane (1), Fire (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2000 | Fire | Severe Fire Threats |
| January 1998 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 1977 | Drought | Drought |
| May 1973 | Flood | Severe Storms, Snow Melt & Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Union County?
Union County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 12.1 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 12th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Union County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (High, $1M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $759K EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $88K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Union County compare to other New Mexico counties?
Union County ranks #28 of 33 New Mexico counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Union County had?
FEMA records 7 federal disaster declarations for Union County since 1973, most often 2 for biological events and 1 for hurricane events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Union County's $4M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.