Catron County, New Mexico Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NM
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 37th
Catron County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 36.6, 37th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Catron County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 36.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 37th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Catron County's expected losses come from wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $59K in expected annual loss and about 2.84 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $490K in expected annual loss and about 64.90 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 4K.
Beyond physical exposure, Catron County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Catron County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 6 for flood events and 3 for fire events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 33 New Mexico counties, Catron County ranks #26 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $3M |
| Landslide | Medium | 2.84 / yr | $59K |
| Lightning | High | 64.90 / yr | $490K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $368 |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.14 / yr | $3M |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $3 |
| Winter Weather | Low | 12.54 / yr | $22K |
| Drought | Very Low | 105.90 / yr | $6K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $21K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $103K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.39 / yr | $7K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $3K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $546 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.06 / yr | $774 |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $2K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Catron County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Flood (6), Fire (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| May 2012 | Fire | Whitewater-Baldy Fire Complex |
| June 2011 | Fire | Wallow Fire |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2000 | Fire | Severe Fire Threats |
| June 1993 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| January 1985 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| October 1983 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Catron County?
Catron County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 36.6 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 37th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Catron County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Medium, $3M EAL), Landslide (Medium, $59K EAL), Lightning (High, $490K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Catron County compare to other New Mexico counties?
Catron County ranks #26 of 33 New Mexico counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Catron County had?
FEMA records 12 federal disaster declarations for Catron County since 1972, most often 6 for flood events and 3 for fire events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Catron County's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.