Guadalupe County, New Mexico Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NM
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 9th
Guadalupe County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 8.8, 9th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $3M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Guadalupe County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 8.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 9th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Guadalupe County's expected losses come from wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $311K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Low risk — $47K in expected annual loss and about 10.82 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Low risk — $40K in expected annual loss and about 129.97 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $3M in expected annual loss for a population of 4K.
Beyond physical exposure, Guadalupe County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Guadalupe County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 1998, including 3 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in April 2020.
Among 33 New Mexico counties, Guadalupe County ranks #30 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $311K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 10.82 / yr | $47K |
| Drought | Low | 129.97 / yr | $40K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.64 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.49 / yr | $184 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1 |
| Lightning | Very Low | 56.31 / yr | $50K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $13K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.07 / yr | $29K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.84 / yr | $20K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.42 / yr | $71K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.25 / yr | $2K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.27 / yr | $12K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.30 / yr | $19K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Guadalupe County has received 9 federal disaster declarations since 1998, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in April 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (3), Biological (2), Fire (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| October 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Mudslides |
| August 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2000 | Fire | Severe Forest Fire |
| May 2000 | Fire | Severe Fire Threats |
| January 1998 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Guadalupe County?
Guadalupe County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 8.8 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 9th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Guadalupe County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Low, $311K EAL), Winter Weather (Low, $47K EAL), Drought (Low, $40K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Guadalupe County compare to other New Mexico counties?
Guadalupe County ranks #30 of 33 New Mexico counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Guadalupe County had?
FEMA records 9 federal disaster declarations for Guadalupe County since 1998, most often 3 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in April 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Guadalupe County's $3M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.