Warren County, New Jersey Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NJ
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 81th
Warren County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 80.8, 81th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $57M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Warren County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 80.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 81st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 6.19 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $8M in expected annual loss and about 1.00 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $37M in expected annual loss and about 2.29 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $57M in expected annual loss for a population of 110K.
Beyond physical exposure, Warren County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Warren County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 8 for severe storm events and 8 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Storm and Flooding (severe storm), declared in August 2023.
Among 21 New Jersey counties, Warren County ranks #18 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | High | 6.19 / yr | $3M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.00 / yr | $8M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.29 / yr | $37M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 14.53 / yr | $325K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.05 / yr | $3M |
| Drought | Medium | 2.22 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.34 / yr | $16K |
| Lightning | Medium | 33.05 / yr | $717K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 5.37 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.74 / yr | $185K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.15 / yr | $2M |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $371 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $13K |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.60 / yr | $65K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Warren County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storm and Flooding in August 2023. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (8), Hurricane (8), Snowstorm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm and Flooding |
| September 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants of Hurricane Ida |
| September 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants of Hurricane Ida |
| April 2021 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| November 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 27 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Warren County?
Warren County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 80.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 81th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Warren County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (High, $3M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $8M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $37M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Warren County compare to other New Jersey counties?
Warren County ranks #18 of 21 New Jersey counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Warren County had?
FEMA records 27 federal disaster declarations for Warren County since 1965, most often 8 for severe storm events and 8 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Storm and Flooding, declared in August 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Warren County's $57M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.