Golden Valley County, Montana Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MT
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 1th
Golden Valley County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 1.0, 1th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $1M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Golden Valley County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 1.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 1st national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Golden Valley County's expected losses come from wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Very Low risk — $68K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Low risk — $142K in expected annual loss and about 33.48 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Very Low risk — $6K in expected annual loss and about 69.83 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $1M in expected annual loss for a population of 813.
Beyond physical exposure, Golden Valley County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Golden Valley County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 3 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds (straight-line winds), declared in April 2026.
Among 56 Montana counties, Golden Valley County ranks #55 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $68K |
| Lightning | Low | 33.48 / yr | $142K |
| Drought | Very Low | 69.83 / yr | $6K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 17.93 / yr | $18K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 4.02 / yr | $220K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.37 / yr | $73 |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.13 / yr | $42K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $13 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $11K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.46 / yr | $743K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.35 / yr | $5K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.10 / yr | $11K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.81 / yr | $7K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $591 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Golden Valley County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds in April 2026. Most frequent causes: Flood (3), Biological (2), Straight-Line Winds (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | Straight-Line Winds | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| October 2023 | Flood | Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2018 | Flood | Flooding |
| April 2014 | Flood | Ice Jams and Flooding |
| June 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| August 2000 | Fire | Wildfires |
| August 1977 | Drought | Drought |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Golden Valley County?
Golden Valley County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 1.0 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 1th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Golden Valley County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Very Low, $68K EAL), Lightning (Low, $142K EAL), Drought (Very Low, $6K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Golden Valley County compare to other Montana counties?
Golden Valley County ranks #55 of 56 Montana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Golden Valley County had?
FEMA records 10 federal disaster declarations for Golden Valley County since 1977, most often 3 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds, declared in April 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Golden Valley County's $1M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.