Cascade County, Montana Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MT
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 83th
Cascade County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 83.1, 83th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $55M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Cascade County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 83.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 83rd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 45.67 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $23M in expected annual loss and about 8.10 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $714K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $55M in expected annual loss for a population of 84K.
Beyond physical exposure, Cascade County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Cascade County has received 7 federal disaster declarations since 1975, including 2 for biological events and 2 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 56 Montana counties, Cascade County ranks #3 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | Very High | 45.67 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | High | 8.10 / yr | $23M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $714K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.75 / yr | $25M |
| Avalanche | Medium | 0.03 / yr | $457K |
| Lightning | Medium | 25.09 / yr | $604K |
| Landslide | Low | 1.54 / yr | $8K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $983K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 0.70 / yr | $829K |
| Hail | Low | 1.02 / yr | $336K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 1.15 / yr | $335K |
| Drought | Low | 58.28 / yr | $39K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $24K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.13 / yr | $280K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Cascade County has received 7 federal disaster declarations since 1975, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Flood (2), Severe Storm (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| August 2000 | Fire | Wildfires |
| May 1981 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| June 1975 | Flood | Rains, Showmelt, Storms & Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Cascade County?
Cascade County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 83.1 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 83th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Cascade County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (Very High, $2M EAL), Cold Wave (High, $23M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $714K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Cascade County compare to other Montana counties?
Cascade County ranks #3 of 56 Montana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Cascade County had?
FEMA records 7 federal disaster declarations for Cascade County since 1975, most often 2 for biological events and 2 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Cascade County's $55M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.