Carter County, Montana Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MT
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 2th
Carter County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 1.7, 2th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $2M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Carter County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 1.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 2nd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $311K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Low risk — $71K in expected annual loss and about 19.63 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Low risk — $852K in expected annual loss and about 7.42 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $2M in expected annual loss for a population of 1K.
Beyond physical exposure, Carter County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Carter County has received 8 federal disaster declarations since 2000, including 4 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 56 Montana counties, Carter County ranks #53 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $311K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 19.63 / yr | $71K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 7.42 / yr | $852K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.96 / yr | $344 |
| Hail | Very Low | 2.52 / yr | $109K |
| Drought | Very Low | 70.11 / yr | $4K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $16K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.84 / yr | $16K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.39 / yr | $53K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.05 / yr | $4K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 1.37 / yr | $40K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.39 / yr | $834K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 34.68 / yr | $12K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Carter County has received 8 federal disaster declarations since 2000, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (4), Biological (2), Hurricane (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| June 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| June 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| December 2000 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| August 2000 | Fire | Wildfires |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Carter County?
Carter County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 1.7 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 2th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Carter County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Low, $311K EAL), Winter Weather (Low, $71K EAL), Cold Wave (Low, $852K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Carter County compare to other Montana counties?
Carter County ranks #53 of 56 Montana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Carter County had?
FEMA records 8 federal disaster declarations for Carter County since 2000, most often 4 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Carter County's $2M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.