St. Francois County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 79th
St. Francois County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 78.5, 79th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $36M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
St. Francois County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 78.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 79th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 10.89 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 4.34 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $36M in expected annual loss for a population of 67K.
Beyond physical exposure, St. Francois County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: St. Francois County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1976, including 11 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in June 2026.
Among 115 Missouri counties, St. Francois County ranks #17 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Heat Wave | Medium | 10.89 / yr | $6M |
| Strong Wind | High | 4.34 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $6M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.32 / yr | $5M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 8.05 / yr | $255K |
| Hail | Medium | 4.46 / yr | $736K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.26 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | Medium | 54.58 / yr | $463K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.00 / yr | $12M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.69 / yr | $4K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.87 / yr | $109K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $66K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $21K |
| Drought | Very Low | 2.05 / yr | $11K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
St. Francois County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1976, most recently Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding in June 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (11), Flood (4), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| June 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2009 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for St. Francois County?
St. Francois County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 78.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 79th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in St. Francois County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (Medium, $6M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL), Earthquake (Medium, $6M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does St. Francois County compare to other Missouri counties?
St. Francois County ranks #17 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has St. Francois County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for St. Francois County since 1976, most often 11 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in June 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. St. Francois County's $36M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.