Howell County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 78th
Howell County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 77.8, 78th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $30M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Howell County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 77.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 78th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 1.23 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 12.11 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $30M in expected annual loss for a population of 40K.
Beyond physical exposure, Howell County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Howell County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 15 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires (severe storm), declared in May 2025.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Howell County ranks #19 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | High | 1.23 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $5M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 12.11 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 10.05 / yr | $215K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 5.39 / yr | $15M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.95 / yr | $3M |
| Lightning | Medium | 56.55 / yr | $509K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.47 / yr | $3M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $215K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.70 / yr | $822K |
| Landslide | Low | 1.09 / yr | $4K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $27K |
| Drought | Low | 4.39 / yr | $26K |
| Hail | Very Low | 4.21 / yr | $103K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Howell County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (15), Flood (4), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| July 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Howell County?
Howell County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 77.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 78th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Howell County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $1M EAL), Earthquake (Medium, $5M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Howell County compare to other Missouri counties?
Howell County ranks #19 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Howell County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Howell County since 1973, most often 15 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires, declared in May 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Howell County's $30M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.