Dunklin County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 80th
Dunklin County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 80.1, 80th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $31M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Dunklin County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 80.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 80th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $18M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 1.21 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 12.96 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $31M in expected annual loss for a population of 28K.
Beyond physical exposure, Dunklin County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Dunklin County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 13 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires (severe storm), declared in May 2025.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Dunklin County ranks #15 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $18M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.21 / yr | $1M |
| Drought | High | 12.96 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 18.42 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 7.58 / yr | $163K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.44 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | Medium | 57.68 / yr | $280K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.03 / yr | $494K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.58 / yr | $676K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $38K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.25 / yr | $4M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.47 / yr | $213 |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.08 / yr | $32K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Dunklin County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (13), Flood (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| July 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Dunklin County?
Dunklin County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 80.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 80th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Dunklin County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $18M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $1M EAL), Drought (High, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Dunklin County compare to other Missouri counties?
Dunklin County ranks #15 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Dunklin County had?
FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Dunklin County since 1973, most often 13 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires, declared in May 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Dunklin County's $31M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.