Dunklin County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO

Low

Composite Risk Score

80.1

National percentile: 80th

Dunklin County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 80.1, 80th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $31M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Overall natural disaster risk in Dunklin County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 80.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 80th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Risk here concentrates in earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $18M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 1.21 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 12.96 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $31M in expected annual loss for a population of 28K.

Beyond physical exposure, Dunklin County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.

The county's disaster history tells the same story: Dunklin County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 13 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires (severe storm), declared in May 2025.

Among 115 Missouri counties, Dunklin County ranks #15 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $31M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability High Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Low Capacity to recover
Population 28K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

Medium $18M/yr
High $1M/yr
High $2M/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Earthquake Medium 0.01 / yr$18M
Ice Storm High 1.21 / yr$1M
Drought High 12.96 / yr$2M
Heat Wave Medium 18.42 / yr$2M
Winter Weather Medium 7.58 / yr$163K
Tornado Medium 0.44 / yr$2M
Lightning Medium 57.68 / yr$280K
Strong Wind Medium 2.03 / yr$494K
Cold Wave Low 2.58 / yr$676K
Hurricane Very Low 0.01 / yr$38K
Riverine Flood Low 1.25 / yr$4M
Landslide Very Low 0.47 / yr$213
Hail Very Low 3.08 / yr$32K
Wildfire Very Low 0.00 / yr$2K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Dunklin County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (13), Flood (3), Biological (2).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
May 2025Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires
May 2025Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding
January 2022Severe StormSevere Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes
July 2020Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
July 2019Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding
June 2017FloodSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding
January 2016FloodSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding
January 2016FloodSevere Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding

Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Dunklin County?

Dunklin County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 80.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 80th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Dunklin County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $18M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $1M EAL), Drought (High, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Dunklin County compare to other Missouri counties?

Dunklin County ranks #15 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Dunklin County had?

FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Dunklin County since 1973, most often 13 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires, declared in May 2025.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Dunklin County's $31M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.