Scott County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 80th
Scott County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 80.1, 80th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $37M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Scott County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 80.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 80th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $18M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 1.38 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 0.37 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $37M in expected annual loss for a population of 38K.
Beyond physical exposure, Scott County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Scott County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 17 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in June 2025.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Scott County ranks #16 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $18M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.38 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.37 / yr | $6M |
| Strong Wind | High | 3.65 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 11.26 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 6.89 / yr | $200K |
| Drought | Medium | 5.33 / yr | $592K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.11 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | Medium | 56.77 / yr | $318K |
| Hail | Low | 3.22 / yr | $294K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.44 / yr | $2K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.50 / yr | $6M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $26K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Scott County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in June 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (17), Flood (5), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| September 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| June 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 30 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Scott County?
Scott County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 80.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 80th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Scott County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $18M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $1M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $6M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Scott County compare to other Missouri counties?
Scott County ranks #16 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Scott County had?
FEMA records 30 federal disaster declarations for Scott County since 1973, most often 17 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in June 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Scott County's $37M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.