St. Louis City, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 99th
St. Louis City faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 98.7, 99th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $359M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in St. Louis City is high, with a National Risk Index score of 98.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 99th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of St. Louis City's expected losses come from heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Very High risk — $172M in expected annual loss and about 15.05 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Very High risk — $28M in expected annual loss and about 0.06 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at High risk — $58M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $359M in expected annual loss for a population of 301K.
Beyond physical exposure, St. Louis City has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The federal record bears this out: St. Louis City has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 13 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in June 2025.
Among 115 Missouri counties, St. Louis City ranks #2 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Heat Wave | Very High | 15.05 / yr | $172M |
| Tornado | Very High | 0.06 / yr | $28M |
| Earthquake | High | 0.01 / yr | $58M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 1.29 / yr | $91M |
| Strong Wind | High | 6.25 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | High | 53.18 / yr | $874K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.68 / yr | $5M |
| Hail | Medium | 5.29 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.55 / yr | $434K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 8.74 / yr | $162K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $827 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $13K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $831 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 1.66 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
St. Louis City has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in June 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (13), Flood (5), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2022 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| June 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2009 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for St. Louis City?
St. Louis City has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 98.7 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 99th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in St. Louis City?
The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (Very High, $172M EAL), Tornado (Very High, $28M EAL), Earthquake (High, $58M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does St. Louis City compare to other Missouri counties?
St. Louis City ranks #2 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has St. Louis City had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for St. Louis City since 1973, most often 13 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in June 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. St. Louis City's $359M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.