Butler County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 83th
Butler County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 83.1, 83th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $46M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Butler County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 83.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 83rd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $13M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 11.63 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $987K in expected annual loss and about 1.26 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $46M in expected annual loss for a population of 42K.
Beyond physical exposure, Butler County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Butler County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 13 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in May 2025.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Butler County ranks #14 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $13M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 11.63 / yr | $4M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.26 / yr | $987K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.52 / yr | $7M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 7.00 / yr | $227K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.40 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 3.57 / yr | $17M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.87 / yr | $10K |
| Lightning | Medium | 57.58 / yr | $368K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.05 / yr | $1M |
| Drought | Low | 6.50 / yr | $176K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $38K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $23K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.09 / yr | $124K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Butler County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (13), Flood (3), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| July 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Butler County?
Butler County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 83.1 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 83th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Butler County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $13M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $4M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $987K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Butler County compare to other Missouri counties?
Butler County ranks #14 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Butler County had?
FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for Butler County since 1973, most often 13 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Butler County's $46M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.