Scotland County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 33th
Scotland County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 33.0, 33th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $6M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Scotland County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 33.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 33rd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Scotland County's expected losses come from heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 9.21 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $3K in expected annual loss and about 0.19 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $281K in expected annual loss and about 14.27 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $6M in expected annual loss for a population of 5K.
Beyond physical exposure, Scotland County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Scotland County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 12 for severe storm events and 4 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in September 2023.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Scotland County ranks #77 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Heat Wave | Medium | 9.21 / yr | $3M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.19 / yr | $3K |
| Drought | Medium | 14.27 / yr | $281K |
| Hail | Low | 3.40 / yr | $256K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $37K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.23 / yr | $775K |
| Lightning | Low | 45.60 / yr | $139K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 3.94 / yr | $308K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 4.47 / yr | $323K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $46K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 11.11 / yr | $10K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.00 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.17 / yr | $2K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Scotland County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in September 2023. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (12), Severe Ice Storm (4), Flood (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| August 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| January 2009 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Scotland County?
Scotland County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 33.0 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 33th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Scotland County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (Medium, $3M EAL), Landslide (Low, $3K EAL), Drought (Medium, $281K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Scotland County compare to other Missouri counties?
Scotland County ranks #77 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Scotland County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Scotland County since 1973, most often 12 for severe storm events and 4 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in September 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Scotland County's $6M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.