Carroll County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 33th
Carroll County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 32.6, 33th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $9M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Carroll County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 32.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 33rd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Carroll County's expected losses come from drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $919K in expected annual loss and about 13.22 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.34 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Low risk — $399K in expected annual loss and about 11.21 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $9M in expected annual loss for a population of 8K.
Beyond physical exposure, Carroll County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Carroll County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 14 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in June 2026.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Carroll County ranks #79 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Medium | 13.22 / yr | $919K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.34 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 11.21 / yr | $399K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.58 / yr | $972K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.17 / yr | $1K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.43 / yr | $5M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $29K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $111K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 10.58 / yr | $34K |
| Hail | Very Low | 5.56 / yr | $123K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.74 / yr | $27K |
| Lightning | Low | 48.60 / yr | $88K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 4.13 / yr | $159K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Carroll County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding in June 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (14), Flood (7), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| September 2021 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| June 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 29 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Carroll County?
Carroll County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 32.6 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 33th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Carroll County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $919K EAL), Tornado (Low, $1M EAL), Heat Wave (Low, $399K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Carroll County compare to other Missouri counties?
Carroll County ranks #79 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Carroll County had?
FEMA records 29 federal disaster declarations for Carroll County since 1965, most often 14 for severe storm events and 7 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in June 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Carroll County's $9M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.