Ozark County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 36th
Ozark County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 35.7, 36th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Ozark County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 35.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 36th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 12.58 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $292K in expected annual loss and about 1.86 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $8K in expected annual loss and about 2.06 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 9K.
Beyond physical exposure, Ozark County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Ozark County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 16 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (severe storm), declared in July 2025.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Ozark County ranks #76 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Heat Wave | Medium | 12.58 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.86 / yr | $292K |
| Landslide | Low | 2.06 / yr | $8K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $353K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $52K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.11 / yr | $377K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.45 / yr | $783K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 5.21 / yr | $3M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 9.79 / yr | $29K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.95 / yr | $412K |
| Lightning | Low | 57.23 / yr | $91K |
| Drought | Very Low | 7.55 / yr | $15K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $7K |
| Hail | Very Low | 5.64 / yr | $21K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Ozark County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in July 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (16), Flood (4), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| September 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 27 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Ozark County?
Ozark County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 35.7 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 36th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Ozark County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (Medium, $1M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $292K EAL), Landslide (Low, $8K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Ozark County compare to other Missouri counties?
Ozark County ranks #76 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Ozark County had?
FEMA records 27 federal disaster declarations for Ozark County since 1973, most often 16 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in July 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Ozark County's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.