Randolph County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 36th
Randolph County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 35.8, 36th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $12M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Randolph County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 35.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 36th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 10.00 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $6K in expected annual loss and about 0.22 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.22 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $12M in expected annual loss for a population of 25K.
Beyond physical exposure, Randolph County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Randolph County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 10 for severe storm events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in June 2026.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Randolph County ranks #75 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Heat Wave | Low | 10.00 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.22 / yr | $6K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.22 / yr | $3M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.84 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $503K |
| Lightning | Low | 48.30 / yr | $237K |
| Drought | Low | 6.06 / yr | $108K |
| Hail | Low | 3.72 / yr | $186K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $25K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.64 / yr | $52K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.50 / yr | $5M |
| Strong Wind | Low | 3.15 / yr | $407K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $4K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 10.21 / yr | $11K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Randolph County has received 18 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding in June 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Severe Ice Storm (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2009 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| November 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and a Tornado |
| June 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| December 2007 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
Showing the 10 most recent of 18 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Randolph County?
Randolph County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 35.8 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 36th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Randolph County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (Low, $2M EAL), Landslide (Low, $6K EAL), Tornado (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Randolph County compare to other Missouri counties?
Randolph County ranks #75 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Randolph County had?
FEMA records 18 federal disaster declarations for Randolph County since 1973, most often 10 for severe storm events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in June 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Randolph County's $12M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.