Reynolds County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 64th
Reynolds County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 63.9, 64th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Reynolds County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 63.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 64th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Reynolds County's expected losses come from cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $10M in expected annual loss and about 1.26 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $25K in expected annual loss and about 3.91 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 10.63 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $20M in expected annual loss for a population of 6K.
Beyond physical exposure, Reynolds County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Reynolds County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 16 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in May 2025.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Reynolds County ranks #40 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 1.26 / yr | $10M |
| Landslide | Low | 3.91 / yr | $25K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 10.63 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $804K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.89 / yr | $6M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $37K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.46 / yr | $807K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 8.00 / yr | $31K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.92 / yr | $31K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $8K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.87 / yr | $198K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 56.41 / yr | $67K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.55 / yr | $44K |
| Drought | Very Low | 2.37 / yr | $500 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Reynolds County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (16), Flood (3), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires |
| January 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 26 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Reynolds County?
Reynolds County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 63.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 64th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Reynolds County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $10M EAL), Landslide (Low, $25K EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Reynolds County compare to other Missouri counties?
Reynolds County ranks #40 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Reynolds County had?
FEMA records 26 federal disaster declarations for Reynolds County since 1973, most often 16 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Reynolds County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.