Callaway County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 64th
Callaway County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 63.9, 64th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $22M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Callaway County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 63.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 64th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 11.95 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $66K in expected annual loss and about 0.65 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $22M in expected annual loss for a population of 44K.
Beyond physical exposure, Callaway County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Callaway County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 14 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires (severe storm), declared in May 2025.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Callaway County ranks #39 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Heat Wave | Medium | 11.95 / yr | $3M |
| Landslide | Medium | 0.65 / yr | $66K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 9.42 / yr | $149K |
| Lightning | Medium | 50.70 / yr | $504K |
| Hail | Low | 4.53 / yr | $569K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.04 / yr | $224K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.37 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.54 / yr | $12M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $123K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.98 / yr | $741K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.43 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Low | 6.96 / yr | $227K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $5K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Callaway County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (14), Flood (6), Severe Ice Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires |
| September 2021 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Callaway County?
Callaway County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 63.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 64th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Callaway County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (Medium, $3M EAL), Landslide (Medium, $66K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Callaway County compare to other Missouri counties?
Callaway County ranks #39 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Callaway County had?
FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Callaway County since 1973, most often 14 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires, declared in May 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Callaway County's $22M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.