Texas County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 62th
Texas County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 62.4, 62th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $16M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Texas County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 62.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 62nd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Texas County's expected losses come from cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 2.32 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 11.79 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $462K in expected annual loss and about 1.09 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $16M in expected annual loss for a population of 24K.
Beyond physical exposure, Texas County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Texas County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1976, including 14 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in May 2025.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Texas County ranks #41 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 2.32 / yr | $6M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 11.79 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.09 / yr | $462K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 11.53 / yr | $78K |
| Landslide | Low | 1.76 / yr | $3K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $87K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.61 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.51 / yr | $572K |
| Lightning | Medium | 55.13 / yr | $227K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 3.14 / yr | $5M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $18K |
| Drought | Low | 1.94 / yr | $36K |
| Hail | Very Low | 4.73 / yr | $95K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Texas County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1976, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (14), Flood (4), Severe Ice Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 27 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Texas County?
Texas County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 62.4 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 62th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Texas County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $6M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $2M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $462K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Texas County compare to other Missouri counties?
Texas County ranks #41 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Texas County had?
FEMA records 27 federal disaster declarations for Texas County since 1976, most often 14 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Texas County's $16M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.