McDonald County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 64th
McDonald County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 64.0, 64th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $25M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates McDonald County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 64.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 64th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $701K in expected annual loss and about 1.66 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 6.33 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 15.16 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $25M in expected annual loss for a population of 23K.
Beyond physical exposure, McDonald County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: McDonald County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 14 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in June 2025.
Among 115 Missouri counties, McDonald County ranks #38 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | High | 1.66 / yr | $701K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 6.33 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 15.16 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.86 / yr | $9K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 3.93 / yr | $16M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.49 / yr | $3M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $230K |
| Drought | Medium | 10.54 / yr | $532K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.00 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 9.89 / yr | $58K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $150K |
| Hail | Low | 7.79 / yr | $166K |
| Lightning | Low | 56.81 / yr | $150K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $17K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
McDonald County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in June 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (14), Flood (5), Severe Ice Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| September 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 26 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for McDonald County?
McDonald County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 64.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 64th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in McDonald County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $701K EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $1M EAL), Heat Wave (Low, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does McDonald County compare to other Missouri counties?
McDonald County ranks #38 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has McDonald County had?
FEMA records 26 federal disaster declarations for McDonald County since 1973, most often 14 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in June 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. McDonald County's $25M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.