Montgomery County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 38th
Montgomery County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 38.3, 38th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $10M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Montgomery County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 38.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 38th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 11.32 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $22K in expected annual loss and about 0.30 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $606K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $10M in expected annual loss for a population of 11K.
Beyond physical exposure, Montgomery County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Montgomery County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 12 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (flood), declared in August 2022.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Montgomery County ranks #73 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Heat Wave | Medium | 11.32 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.30 / yr | $22K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $606K |
| Hail | Low | 4.76 / yr | $332K |
| Drought | Low | 6.91 / yr | $201K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 1.09 / yr | $95K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.32 / yr | $5M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $27K |
| Lightning | Low | 49.66 / yr | $137K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.26 / yr | $552K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 4.76 / yr | $267K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.32 / yr | $484K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 9.32 / yr | $20K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $5K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Montgomery County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in August 2022. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (12), Flood (6), Severe Ice Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| August 2022 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2021 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 26 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Montgomery County?
Montgomery County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 38.3 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 38th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Montgomery County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (Medium, $2M EAL), Landslide (Low, $22K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $606K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Montgomery County compare to other Missouri counties?
Montgomery County ranks #73 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Montgomery County had?
FEMA records 26 federal disaster declarations for Montgomery County since 1973, most often 12 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in August 2022.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Montgomery County's $10M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.