Oregon County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 49th
Oregon County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 48.7, 49th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $11M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Oregon County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 48.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 49th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Oregon County's expected losses come from earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 1.89 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $239K in expected annual loss and about 1.17 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $11M in expected annual loss for a population of 9K.
Beyond physical exposure, Oregon County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Oregon County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 17 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires (severe storm), declared in May 2025.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Oregon County ranks #63 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.89 / yr | $3M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.17 / yr | $239K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 12.37 / yr | $611K |
| Landslide | Low | 1.83 / yr | $3K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.44 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $59K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 9.63 / yr | $50K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.79 / yr | $4M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $17K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.44 / yr | $260K |
| Lightning | Low | 57.37 / yr | $96K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.81 / yr | $29K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 7.22 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Oregon County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (17), Biological (2), Flood (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| July 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Oregon County?
Oregon County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 48.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 49th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Oregon County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Low, $1M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $3M EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $239K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Oregon County compare to other Missouri counties?
Oregon County ranks #63 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Oregon County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Oregon County since 1973, most often 17 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires, declared in May 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Oregon County's $11M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.